![]() ![]() Previous studies have shown that changes in broad climatic conditions may influence the probability of species invasions and that such effects are likely to be diverse and context‐dependent (Bradley et al., 2010 Rahel & Olden, 2008 Walther et al., 2009). There is a general consensus that the future distribution of invasive species will likely expand with climate change (Bellard et al., 2013 Dukes & Mooney, 1999 Mooney & Hobbs, 2000 Ziska & Dukes, 2014). While the degradation of ecosystem services and biodiversity by invasive species is already a major challenge, climate change is likely to increase it. For example, changing climatic conditions are expected to alter global commerce routes in the future and likely increase the introduction of exotic species into new geographic regions (Bradley, Blumenthal, Wilcove, & Ziska, 2010 Hellmann, Byers, Bierwager, & Dukes, 2008). Although such studies are still relatively rare, the synergy between these issues is becoming increasingly evident. More recently, studies investigating the connectedness of these factors and their potential cumulative interactions have become more common (e.g., Brook, Sodhi, & Bradshaw, 2008 Buczkowski & Richmond, 2012 Gallardo & Aldridge, 2013 Mooney & Hobbs, 2000 Stachowicz, Terwin, Whitlatch, & Osman, 2002). ![]() Each factor is independently capable of effecting significant changes in biological communities, and all three have been the subject of extensive research in the context of conservation and the control of pests (e.g., Dukes & Mooney, 1999 Hudson et al., 2014 Sala et al., 2000 Walther et al., 2009). The spread of exotic species, climate change, and urbanization are among the most serious global environmental threats. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively. ![]() Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species‐rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways ( RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (20). We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human‐made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. ![]()
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